Over 2.5 Goals — Prediction Accuracy
Every over/under 2.5 goals call we published in the last 90 days, scored against the final score. The number that matters is not the hit rate on its own — it is the hit rate next to what a blanket guess would have achieved over the same matches.
Over / Under 2.5 goals — the record
Behind the baseline — 53.2% against a 58.5% baseline, over n = 3,162 settled tips in the last 90 days. That is 5.3 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Measured across 44 leagues with at least 30 settled matches each — leagues with only a handful of games are excluded, because 2 from 3 is not a hit rate. In each league the bar is whichever blanket call would have scored higher there (always "over" or always "under"); those are volume-weighted into the 58.5% shown.
Where it works, and where it doesn't
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 44 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 12 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligue 265%+12.0ptn=60
- Chance Liga60%+7.5ptn=43
- Bulgaria First League58%+5.6ptn=66
- La Liga62%+4.1ptn=66
- Npl Victoria57%+3.6ptn=53
- UEFA Nations League51%+1.0ptn=104
- NB I64%+0.4ptn=45
- Challenger Pro League63%+0.4ptn=41
- Ligi kuu Bara60%+0.0ptn=35
- Npfl61%-0.4ptn=66
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol54%-1.3ptn=164
- English League 255%-1.5ptn=99
- Tippeligaen67%-1.7ptn=49
- Liga MX51%-2.0ptn=51
- South Africa Premier League65%-2.1ptn=57
- Admiral Bundesliga62%-2.1ptn=42
- FA Cup60%-2.2ptn=498
- Npl Queensland58%-2.9ptn=31
- China League One48%-3.5ptn=97
- Romania Liga 147%-3.6ptn=78
- Serie B48%-4.1ptn=48
- Ghana Premier League51%-4.8ptn=41
- Allsvenskan45%-6.2ptn=87
- Europe League47%-6.2ptn=62
- Eerste Divisie61%-6.9ptn=90
- Major League Soccer52%-6.9ptn=96
- China Super League45%-7.7ptn=53
- Enterprise National League50%-8.0ptn=52
- Greece Super League49%-8.4ptn=35
- Jupiler League52%-8.5ptn=61
- Liga Portugal47%-8.6ptn=57
- New South Wales52%-9.4ptn=64
- Champions League48%-9.5ptn=66
- English Premier League46%-11.1ptn=37
- Superliga43%-11.4ptn=54
- Brazil Serie A43%-11.9ptn=58
- K League 140%-13.4ptn=53
- English League 140%-15.2ptn=88
- Club Friendlies 149%-16.6ptn=85
- Ekstraklasa43%-17.1ptn=77
- English League Championship53%-18.9ptn=32
- Women's Super League33%-21.7ptn=33
- Bundesliga54%-22.7ptn=35
- Switzerland Super League45%-31.7ptn=53
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- A call is correct when the model predicted over and the match finished with 3 or more goals, or predicted under and it finished with 2 or fewer.
- Only settled matches count. Nothing is removed after the fact because it lost.
- The window is the last 90 days, refreshed daily. Current verdict: Behind the baseline.
Related pages
See every prediction as it happens
Daily tips, full match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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