Over 2.5 Goals — Prediction Accuracy
Every over/under 2.5 goals call we published in the last 90 days, scored against the final score. The number that matters is not the hit rate on its own — it is the hit rate next to what a blanket guess would have achieved over the same matches.
Over / Under 2.5 goals — the record
Behind the baseline — 51.3% against a 56.5% baseline, over n = 2,135 settled tips in the last 90 days. That is 5.2 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Across these 2,135 matches, 56.5% actually went over 2.5. So always calling "over" would have scored 56.5% and always calling "under" would have scored 43.5%. The higher of those two — 56.5% — is the bar.
Where it works, and where it does not
Per league, minimum 20 settled matches. Leagues below the baseline are shown too — that is the point of publishing this.
| League | Hit rate | Actual over rate | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| FA Cup | 57% | 61% | 255 |
| New South Wales | 59% | 51% | 104 |
| World Cup 2026 | 52% | 56% | 102 |
| Major League Soccer | 52% | 59% | 96 |
| Club Friendlies 1 | 50% | 66% | 92 |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 55% | 39% | 87 |
| China League One | 42% | 62% | 84 |
| Npl Victoria | 57% | 56% | 77 |
| China Super League | 43% | 58% | 74 |
| Europe League | 46% | 53% | 68 |
| Brazil Serie A | 45% | 45% | 67 |
| Allsvenskan | 46% | 60% | 67 |
How this is measured
- A call is correct when the model predicted over and the match finished with 3 or more goals, or predicted under and it finished with 2 or fewer.
- Only settled matches count. Nothing is removed after the fact because it lost.
- The window is the last 90 days, refreshed daily. Current verdict: Behind the baseline.
Related pages
See every prediction as it happens
Daily tips, full match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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