Over 2.5 Goals — Prediction Accuracy
Every over/under 2.5 goals call we published in the last 90 days, scored against the final score. The number that matters is not the hit rate on its own — it is the hit rate next to what a blanket guess would have achieved over the same matches.
Over / Under 2.5 goals — the record
Behind the baseline — 51.8% against a 59.2% baseline, over n = 2,226 settled tips in the last 90 days. That is 7.4 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Measured across 35 leagues with at least 30 settled matches each — leagues with only a handful of games are excluded, because 2 from 3 is not a hit rate. In each league the bar is whichever blanket call would have scored higher there (always "over" or always "under"); those are volume-weighted into the 59.2% shown.
Where it works, and where it doesn't
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 35 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 17 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligue 274%+12.7ptn=38
- Chance Liga62%+6.9ptn=42
- English League 254%+4.3ptn=46
- Bulgaria First League57%+2.4ptn=47
- Ligi kuu Bara60%+2.3ptn=73
- New South Wales56%+1.0ptn=100
- Npl Victoria57%+0.9ptn=72
- Tippeligaen67%-1.7ptn=49
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol58%-1.9ptn=105
- Liga MX51%-2.0ptn=51
- South Africa Premier League59%-2.5ptn=37
- NB I59%-3.2ptn=34
- Admiral Bundesliga53%-3.7ptn=30
- World Cup 202652%-4.0ptn=102
- FA Cup56%-4.5ptn=263
- Champions League49%-6.7ptn=73
- Major League Soccer52%-6.9ptn=96
- Romania Liga 151%-7.1ptn=55
- Europe League46%-7.4ptn=68
- Superliga43%-7.8ptn=37
- Enterprise National League51%-8.0ptn=51
- Allsvenskan44%-9.7ptn=70
- Eerste Divisie63%-10.5ptn=48
- Brazil Serie A43%-11.9ptn=58
- Npl Queensland55%-12.5ptn=55
- Liga Portugal37%-13.3ptn=30
- K League 139%-14.0ptn=59
- Club Friendlies 150%-16.0ptn=92
- China Super League41%-17.8ptn=68
- English League Championship53%-18.9ptn=32
- Jupiler League49%-20.4ptn=35
- China League One42%-21.3ptn=84
- Ekstraklasa39%-22.2ptn=49
- English League 138%-24.2ptn=45
- Switzerland Super League41%-34.4ptn=32
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- A call is correct when the model predicted over and the match finished with 3 or more goals, or predicted under and it finished with 2 or fewer.
- Only settled matches count. Nothing is removed after the fact because it lost.
- The window is the last 90 days, refreshed daily. Current verdict: Behind the baseline.
Related pages
See every prediction as it happens
Daily tips, full match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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