Draw Model — Prediction Accuracy
This is our dedicated draw model, separate from the 1X2 draw leg. It only speaks up on fixtures it rates as draws, so the number here is how often it was right when it did.
Draw Model — the record
Behind the baseline — 23.7% against a 25.3% baseline, over n = 97 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 1.6 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
The bar is the base rate of draws across the fixtures this model judged — calling a draw at random would land about that often. Draws happened in 25.3% of the fixtures this model judged. That base rate is the bar: calling a draw at random would land about that often.
Draw Model by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 0 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 20 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
No leagues meet that threshold. Try lowering the minimum.
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every draw model tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- The bar is the base rate of draws across the fixtures this model judged — calling a draw at random would land about that often. Draws happened in 25.3% of the fixtures this model judged. That base rate is the bar: calling a draw at random would land about that often.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 97 settled tips.
Other markets
Get draw model tips daily
Full daily list, match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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