Draw or Away (X2) — Prediction Accuracy
X2 wins if the away side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Draw or Away (X2) — the record
Behind the baseline — 64.3% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 4,379 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 2.4 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Recent form (last 90 days): 64.4%on n = 792 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Draw or Away (X2) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 55 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 12 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Uganda Premier League79%+12.5ptn=48
- South Africa Premier League75%+8.3ptn=44
- Ligue 275%+8.0ptn=99
- UAE Pro League74%+7.4ptn=58
- English Premier League74%+7.3ptn=131
- Ligi kuu Bara73%+6.8ptn=49
- Greece Super League73%+6.6ptn=75
- Ukrainian Premier League73%+6.4ptn=52
- Jupiler League73%+6.3ptn=74
- Serie A73%+6.1ptn=125
- Bundesliga72%+5.6ptn=94
- Ligue 172%+5.6ptn=65
- Club Friendlies 172%+5.2ptn=32
- Women's Super League71%+4.7ptn=35
- Ekstraklasa70%+3.0ptn=66
- Npl Queensland69%+2.5ptn=39
- K League 169%+2.0ptn=64
- Cambodia C-League69%+1.9ptn=35
- Superliga69%+1.8ptn=54
- Major League Soccer68%+1.5ptn=85
- Challenger Pro League68%+1.3ptn=97
- Kenya Premier League67%-0.0ptn=75
- China League One67%-0.0ptn=45
- Eredivisie66%-0.6ptn=59
- China Super League66%-0.7ptn=53
- 2. Bundesliga66%-0.9ptn=76
- Jamaica Premier League64%-2.3ptn=90
- Npl Victoria64%-2.4ptn=42
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol64%-2.5ptn=95
- Chance Liga64%-2.9ptn=69
- A-League Men64%-3.1ptn=33
- Switzerland Super League63%-3.2ptn=63
- La Liga63%-3.6ptn=103
- Enterprise National League63%-3.8ptn=70
- Liga Portugal63%-4.2ptn=56
- Serie B62%-4.3ptn=149
- New South Wales62%-4.3ptn=93
- FA Cup62%-4.5ptn=225
- World Cup 202662%-4.9ptn=34
- Eerste Divisie61%-5.5ptn=103
- Romania Liga 161%-5.9ptn=79
- English League Championship60%-6.3ptn=192
- English League 159%-7.4ptn=86
- Champions League59%-7.6ptn=66
- Allsvenskan58%-9.2ptn=73
- Liga MX57%-9.2ptn=80
- Europe League57%-9.3ptn=61
- Brazil Serie A57%-9.7ptn=79
- Premier League Cup57%-10.0ptn=30
- English League 256%-10.3ptn=188
- Tippeligaen56%-10.9ptn=52
- Hong Kong Premier League50%-16.7ptn=30
- Admiral Bundesliga47%-19.8ptn=49
- 3. Liga44%-22.4ptn=88
- Npfl33%-33.4ptn=66
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every draw or away tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 4,379 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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