Home or Draw (1X) — Prediction Accuracy
1X wins if the home side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Home or Draw (1X) — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 73.3% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 6,614 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 6.6 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 72.2%on n = 1,362 — below the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Home or Draw (1X) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 61 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 8 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- WC Qualification Europe91%+24.2ptn=33
- Npfl90%+23.4ptn=142
- J-League87%+20.4ptn=31
- Uganda Premier League82%+15.7ptn=91
- Liga Portugal82%+15.2ptn=83
- Ghana Premier League82%+15.1ptn=99
- Serie B81%+14.2ptn=157
- Greece Super League80%+13.6ptn=76
- South Africa Premier League80%+12.8ptn=88
- Brazil Serie A79%+12.2ptn=190
- Bundesliga79%+12.2ptn=114
- Women's Super League79%+12.1ptn=33
- World Cup 202678%+10.9ptn=49
- Romania Liga 177%+10.7ptn=115
- La Liga77%+10.3ptn=122
- China Super League77%+10.3ptn=148
- Tippeligaen77%+10.2ptn=91
- Ekstraklasa77%+9.9ptn=145
- Major League Soccer75%+8.7ptn=224
- Jamaica Premier League75%+8.6ptn=73
- Europe League75%+8.3ptn=120
- UAE Pro League75%+8.3ptn=44
- English Premier League75%+8.1ptn=131
- Hong Kong Premier League74%+7.6ptn=35
- Eredivisie74%+7.4ptn=116
- NB I74%+7.4ptn=58
- English League Championship74%+7.1ptn=206
- Champions League73%+6.8ptn=113
- Ligue 173%+6.6ptn=86
- English League 273%+6.1ptn=173
- Bulgaria First League73%+6.1ptn=125
- China League One73%+5.9ptn=95
- Superliga72%+5.5ptn=90
- Serie A72%+5.1ptn=110
- Ligi kuu Bara72%+5.1ptn=110
- Admiral Bundesliga72%+5.1ptn=85
- Ligue 272%+5.0ptn=145
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol72%+4.9ptn=285
- 2. Bundesliga71%+4.6ptn=122
- Chance Liga71%+4.0ptn=92
- Switzerland Super League71%+3.9ptn=102
- A-League Men71%+3.9ptn=68
- Ukrainian Premier League70%+3.7ptn=54
- 3. Liga70%+3.3ptn=120
- Premier League Cup70%+3.3ptn=30
- English League 169%+2.4ptn=181
- Jupiler League69%+2.1ptn=109
- Allsvenskan68%+1.6ptn=63
- Enterprise National League68%+1.4ptn=210
- Liga MX68%+1.3ptn=128
- Club Friendlies 168%+1.2ptn=53
- Npl Queensland68%+0.8ptn=40
- Kenya Premier League67%+0.8ptn=123
- Eerste Divisie67%+0.5ptn=122
- Challenger Pro League67%+0.4ptn=73
- K League 167%-0.0ptn=123
- India I-League66%-0.9ptn=38
- Cambodia C-League65%-1.8ptn=37
- FA Cup65%-2.1ptn=158
- New South Wales64%-3.1ptn=121
- Npl Victoria59%-7.3ptn=106
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home or draw tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 6,614 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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