Home or Draw (1X) — Prediction Accuracy
1X wins if the home side wins or draws. Because it covers two results out of three, it has a high bar to clear before it means anything.
Home or Draw (1X) — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 73.7% against a 66.7% baseline, over n = 6,846 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 7.0 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 73.1%on n = 2,109 — below the headline figure.
This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
Home or Draw (1X) by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 60 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 8 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Npfl90%+23.2ptn=168
- Women's Super League83%+16.6ptn=36
- Ghana Premier League83%+16.1ptn=122
- Greece Super League83%+15.8ptn=80
- Uganda Premier League82%+15.0ptn=104
- Serie B81%+14.0ptn=150
- Jamaica Premier League79%+12.8ptn=73
- Brazil Serie A79%+12.3ptn=195
- Liga Portugal78%+11.3ptn=82
- Bundesliga78%+11.2ptn=104
- South Africa Premier League78%+11.2ptn=104
- China Super League78%+10.9ptn=147
- World Cup 202678%+10.9ptn=49
- Romania Liga 177%+10.0ptn=120
- Major League Soccer76%+9.2ptn=245
- Tippeligaen76%+9.2ptn=83
- Admiral Bundesliga76%+8.9ptn=78
- Hong Kong Premier League76%+8.9ptn=41
- China League One75%+8.6ptn=93
- La Liga75%+8.5ptn=121
- Ligue 275%+8.1ptn=135
- English League 275%+7.8ptn=200
- Bulgaria First League74%+7.7ptn=125
- Europe League74%+7.7ptn=121
- English Premier League74%+7.6ptn=140
- NB I74%+7.5ptn=66
- Ekstraklasa74%+7.5ptn=159
- Serie A74%+7.5ptn=120
- Eredivisie74%+6.9ptn=121
- Champions League74%+6.8ptn=117
- English League Championship73%+6.3ptn=196
- UAE Pro League73%+5.8ptn=51
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol72%+5.8ptn=309
- 2. Bundesliga72%+5.7ptn=123
- Ligi kuu Bara72%+5.6ptn=112
- Ligue 172%+5.3ptn=82
- Premier League Cup72%+5.2ptn=32
- Superliga71%+4.6ptn=87
- Ukrainian Premier League71%+4.5ptn=52
- Allsvenskan71%+4.1ptn=65
- Liga MX71%+3.9ptn=119
- A-League Men71%+3.9ptn=68
- 3. Liga70%+3.2ptn=113
- FA Cup70%+2.9ptn=204
- English League 169%+2.6ptn=202
- Kenya Premier League69%+2.4ptn=110
- Switzerland Super League69%+2.4ptn=97
- Chance Liga68%+1.8ptn=92
- Npl Queensland68%+1.6ptn=41
- Enterprise National League68%+1.0ptn=220
- K League 168%+1.0ptn=130
- Jupiler League68%+1.0ptn=99
- Eerste Divisie68%+0.8ptn=120
- Challenger Pro League67%+0.5ptn=61
- UEFA Nations League67%-0.0ptn=66
- India I-League66%-0.9ptn=38
- Club Friendlies 166%-1.2ptn=58
- New South Wales65%-1.9ptn=122
- Cambodia C-League61%-5.6ptn=36
- Npl Victoria60%-6.7ptn=105
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home or draw tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- This tip covers two of the three possible results, so picking at random already lands about 67% of the time. That — not 33% — is the bar it has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 6,846 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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