Draw — Prediction Accuracy
Draws are the hardest single result to call. Here is how often our draw tips landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Draw — the record
Behind the baseline — 16.4% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 67 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 16.9 points below the baseline, so this market is not currently beating a coin flip. We publish it anyway — that is the point of this page.
Recent form (last 90 days): 16.9% on n = 59 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
How this is measured
- Every draw tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Behind the baseline, on 67 settled tips.
Other markets
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Full daily list, match analysis, and the same published record inside the app
18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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