Home Win — Prediction Accuracy
A home win tip backs one result out of three. Here is how often ours landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Home Win — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 56.6% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 2,616 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 23.3 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 53.8% on n = 212 — below the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
How this is measured
- Every home win tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 2,616 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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