Home Win — Prediction Accuracy
A home win tip backs one result out of three. Here is how often ours landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Home Win — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 58.3% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 2,307 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 25.0 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 59.1%on n = 408 — in line with or better than the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
Home Win by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 37 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 32 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligi kuu Bara98%+64.2ptn=40
- Liga Portugal85%+51.7ptn=60
- La Liga77%+44.0ptn=75
- Bundesliga74%+41.1ptn=39
- Uganda Premier League74%+40.4ptn=38
- WC Qualification Europe72%+38.5ptn=39
- Women's Super League71%+37.7ptn=31
- Champions League70%+36.5ptn=43
- Ukrainian Premier League69%+35.5ptn=32
- Npfl66%+32.7ptn=50
- Eredivisie64%+30.6ptn=36
- Brazil Serie A64%+30.3ptn=55
- South Africa Premier League62%+28.5ptn=34
- Jupiler League62%+28.4ptn=60
- 2. Bundesliga61%+28.1ptn=44
- Npl Queensland61%+27.6ptn=46
- Europe League60%+27.2ptn=43
- English Premier League60%+26.3ptn=57
- English League Championship60%+26.3ptn=52
- Ligue 158%+24.4ptn=71
- Chance Liga57%+23.8ptn=49
- Ghana Premier League57%+23.5ptn=37
- Liga MX56%+23.0ptn=32
- Serie A55%+21.8ptn=69
- Major League Soccer54%+21.0ptn=35
- FA Cup53%+20.0ptn=90
- Enterprise National League52%+18.9ptn=69
- Challenger Pro League52%+18.8ptn=48
- Eerste Divisie49%+16.1ptn=81
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol48%+15.2ptn=66
- Indian Super League48%+15.1ptn=31
- English League 148%+14.2ptn=80
- China League One46%+12.9ptn=65
- Bulgaria First League45%+11.7ptn=40
- 3. Liga44%+10.3ptn=39
- Ekstraklasa40%+6.7ptn=30
- English League 239%+6.2ptn=38
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home win tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 2,307 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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