Home Win — Prediction Accuracy
A home win tip backs one result out of three. Here is how often ours landed, measured against what guessing would have achieved.
Home Win — the record
Ahead of the baseline — 57.1% against a 33.3% baseline, over n = 2,546 settled tips in the last 365 days. That is 23.8 points above the baseline.
Recent form (last 90 days): 56.7%on n = 263 — below the headline figure.
Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
Home Win by league
Each league is measured against its own baseline, because leagues differ. Best edge first — the ones behind are further down, not removed.
Showing 40 leagues with 30+ settled matches. 30 leagues fall below that and are left out — too few matches to call it a hit rate.
- Ligi kuu Bara98%+64.2ptn=40
- Liga Portugal80%+47.0ptn=66
- WC Qualification Europe77%+43.3ptn=47
- Women's Super League76%+42.5ptn=33
- La Liga75%+41.4ptn=91
- Bundesliga74%+40.2ptn=34
- Uganda Premier League71%+38.1ptn=42
- Eredivisie70%+37.0ptn=37
- Champions League70%+36.5ptn=53
- Npfl67%+33.4ptn=63
- 2. Bundesliga65%+31.9ptn=46
- South Africa Premier League65%+31.9ptn=46
- Liga MX63%+30.1ptn=41
- Npl Queensland62%+28.4ptn=47
- Ligue 161%+27.7ptn=77
- English Premier League61%+27.6ptn=64
- Jupiler League58%+24.9ptn=55
- Romania Liga 157%+23.4ptn=30
- Europe League57%+23.3ptn=53
- English League Championship55%+21.6ptn=51
- Ghana Premier League55%+21.2ptn=44
- Brazil Serie A54%+21.1ptn=79
- Serie B54%+21.0ptn=35
- Chance Liga54%+20.5ptn=52
- Jamaica Premier League54%+20.5ptn=39
- Enterprise National League53%+20.0ptn=75
- Ukrainian Premier League53%+19.6ptn=34
- Serie A52%+19.0ptn=88
- Challenger Pro League52%+18.7ptn=50
- Major League Soccer51%+18.0ptn=39
- FA Cup50%+16.7ptn=46
- Indian Super League48%+15.1ptn=31
- English League 148%+15.0ptn=87
- Bulgaria First League46%+13.0ptn=41
- Liga Profesional de Fútbol46%+12.9ptn=93
- China League One46%+12.9ptn=65
- 3. Liga42%+9.0ptn=52
- Ekstraklasa42%+8.6ptn=31
- Eerste Divisie39%+5.3ptn=83
- English League 236%+2.7ptn=50
The amber line on each bar is that league's own baseline. Green means the model is ahead of it, grey means it is not.
How this is measured
- Every home win tip published in the last 365 days is scored against the final result. Losing tips stay on the record.
- Picking one of three results at random lands about 33% of the time, so that is the bar this has to clear.
- Fixtures the model could not price are excluded — they were never published as tips.
- Current verdict: Ahead of the baseline, on 2,546 settled tips.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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