Match Outcome — Accuracy by Tip Type

Every match-outcome tip from the last 365 days, split by type and scored against the result. Each row carries its own baseline, because a tip covering two of three results starts from a much higher bar than one covering a single result.

By tip type

Tip	Hit rate	Baseline	Edge	n
Home or draw (1X)	73.5%	66.7%	+6.8pt	6,513
Draw or away (X2)	64.6%	66.7%	-2.1pt	4,360
Home win	56.6%	33.3%	+23.3pt	2,616
Away win	47.4%	33.3%	+14.1pt	941
Win either way (12)	71.3%	66.7%	+4.6pt	230
Draw	16.4%	33.3%	-16.9pt	67

Edge is hit rate minus the baseline for that tip type. A single result (1, X, 2) has a 33.3% baseline; a double chance (1X, X2, 12) has 66.7%, because it already covers two outcomes out of three.

All match-outcome tips, month by month

9,705 landed from 14,727 settled tips — 65.9% against a volume-weighted baseline of 58.5%. Ahead of the baseline.

Month by month, last 13 months with at least 20 settled tips. Grey bars are months below the baseline — they stay on the record.

Per-market detail

Home Win Away Win Draw Home or Draw (1X)Draw or Away (X2)Win Either Way (12)Over 2.5 goals How our AI works

Follow the picks as they land

Daily tips, full match analysis, and this same record inside the app

FreeNo signupNo ads

18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.