Match Outcome — Accuracy by Tip Type
Every match-outcome tip from the last 365 days, split by type and scored against the result. Each row carries its own baseline, because a tip covering two of three results starts from a much higher bar than one covering a single result.
By tip type
| Tip | Hit rate | Baseline | Edge | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home or draw (1X) | 73.3% | 66.7% | +6.6pt | 6,614 |
| Draw or away (X2) | 64.3% | 66.7% | -2.4pt | 4,379 |
| Home win | 57.1% | 33.3% | +23.8pt | 2,546 |
| Away win | 47.9% | 33.3% | +14.6pt | 944 |
| Win either way (12) | 71.7% | 66.7% | +5.0pt | 244 |
| Draw | 20.4% | 33.3% | -12.9pt | 93 |
Edge is hit rate minus the baseline for that tip type. A single result (1, X, 2) has a 33.3% baseline; a double chance (1X, X2, 12) has 66.7%, because it already covers two outcomes out of three.
All match-outcome tips, month by month
9,764 landed from 14,820 settled tips — 65.9% against a volume-weighted baseline of 58.6%. Ahead of the baseline.
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18+. These figures describe how our model has performed on settled matches. Past performance is not a guide to future results, and no prediction is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Free, confidential help is available at BeGambleAware.org.
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